The “Vol Trap” — How Long and How Low the VIX?

“We’ve been here before—with the VIX (The CBOE’s Volatility Index) settling in the 10% to 12% range while realized S&P 500 volatility hovers around 6% to 8%. Have you ever seen an ocean smooth and calm like a lake, with gentle waves lapping on the shore? It happens occasionally, and how wonderful it is. We can even let toddlers put their toes in the water. But a calm ocean rarely lulls us into thinking large waves cannot come crashing in again with little or no warning. Weather can change suddenly. So can the markets.”

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